Part 1 of our analysis on Arianne’s first pre-released The Winds of Winter chapter

Theories and analysis of A Song of Ice and Fire using text evidence and quotes from George RR Martin.

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Pamela Mertz-Lady Green Hand
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43 COMMENTS

  2. I would assume that her best approach (and the reason that she was given a letter that otherwise seems to offer very little) in this would be to use Jon Connington's supposed relationship with her late siblings. Use her wit to try and squirrel out some personal details or insights that only someone that actually KNEW either of them would know. Otherwise… yeah, I'm curious to see what you guys think on Doran's motives.

    Also, a thought that was had: if Daemon WAS Oberyn's lover, maybe he's being sent as the honeypot this time around instead of Arianne. XD

    He could also be thinning his herd of inheritance really is on his brain. Making sure that only the smartest and most capable of his potential heirs is chosen.

  5. Just the very first part of this video made me happy… just being reminded that Doran Martell is still alive in the books. The Martells are my favorite house…and their depiction on the show (with the exception of oberyn) really depressed me. and this sample chapter was awesome.

  8. Another thing to think about. We know that Oberyn and Jon Connington were at Harrenhal together and if Oberyn is bisexual and Arrianne certainly seemed to think it was possible, something might have happened between the two of them. If Doran knows about this his sending Damon Sand, a possible lover of Obern, makes a lot of sense. Perhaps all three of these young, presentable knights swing that way. It could also help determine if it is Connington, if Doran knows that he is gay and Oberyn and his sister would likely have known that. Also Elia Sand is not going as Elia Sand, she is supposed to be a serving girl. If Connington did know Oberyn, he should spot the deception. Beyond that he has the mannerisms and bearing of a Lord. He was born the heir, he was trained to command from an early age, taught by a Maester and a Master at arms, he was a castle born and bred and that tells. Tyrion figured out who he was in five minutes.

    As far as Aegon goes, Connington himself believes that Aegon must marry Dany for his claim to be accepted. No one will know for sure if he is Aegon. I'm not even sure why Connington believes it. That brings Lemore into the picture if she is indeed Ashara Dayne and has been with the boy since the beginning. Still, how would Arrianne know that she is truly Ashara? I have no idea, I'm not sold on this idea but it is one of the better theories for her identity. If she is Ashara why wouldn't she have signed the letter that was sent to Doran? I'm also not clear what the relation is between house Dayne and house Martell at this point. They did not send anyone to Kings Landing with Oberyn, neither did Yronwood but that might have been because of the bad blood between Oberyn and that house. The one member of that house who was active in Sunspear, that we know of, is described as being poisonous and a viper. I'm not sure about Darkstar, is he just an independent troublemaker, is he working to advance the interests of his own house, or is he a Lyn Corbray type who is secretly in league with Doran? I'm reminded of Littlefinger stating how you have to do things at times that seem to work against your interests which the maiming of Myrcella would seem to do, Doran obstensibly wants peace. Under the cover of returning Myrcella he is inserting two snakes into Kings Landing to cause trouble. He has chastened his daughter and gotten her to mature and maybe start taking on some more responsibilities. It also allows him to move Obara, who was under arrest, to the West, where she might take command of the army in the Princes Pass. I'm not sure if her and Hotahs goal is to kill Darkstar or to kill Balon Swann. Arrianne thought Hotah was angry that Darkstar got away. Yet Hotah never thinks of having to confront him, he only thinks of Swann.

  9. Maybe Doran was hoping she'd just do what she always does, and seduce not Jon Connington, but Aegon. She'd say no if Doran suggested it, because "that's my cousin blah blah" but he knows that if she goes and sees this handsome, daring, very-much Valyrian and not Dornish young man, maybe she'll be more apt to follow her usual pathway of wangin' and bangin'. Not uncommon for Targs anyway. I also feel like he's alluding at maybe Darkstar having a plot of his own, perhaps with Daemon in on it, maybe even Doran. I dunno, I haven't read all of the snippets so it's a bit premature buut

  17. Arg, I'm at an impass here because I've tried so hard to avoid information and sample chapters from Winds, yet I'm starving for more great story telling. I've only read the first three samples I think. this one, the Selmy and Theon. I just hate being spoiled. I even go to great lengths to avoid any and all Star Wars trailers and information. I can normally just not click on it, yet I love your content. It's going to be a great test to my self control and discipline!

  19. It's so hard going from the best championship mma bouts ever..blood just juicing through your veins..& yawn..that's enough brawls…

    Where do I go? Well… Search: Order of the Green Hand! Of course!!

    New Video!?!😆 (NO notification..thanks YouTube!)

    Feels amazing! Breath of fresh air…my favorite channel!

    Thanks as always you two!! 🤗

    Valar dohæris,

    – The Red Viper

  25. i hope u guys have more on book to unlock those secret doors those are yet to be wander, still love these chapters keep them coming ………..im sooooooo hungry for these u know wat i mean
    🙂

  26. Great one, yet again. You guys have given me a lot of food for thought. So I'd like to offer some morsel of insight I've had myself.

    In brief: to answer a question you guys posed before (why would Varys save one child, Aegon, but not the other, Rhaenys.) Could it be, in light of Arianne's botched plan to crown Myrcella, that this idea of Dornish law of succession was a cause of concern in Rhaenys time? According to the Dornish law, she would of been Rhaeger primary heir. A possibility perhaps lords of the other six kingdoms would oppose. The histories remember the last time two targaeryn children were dived into factions. So, just maybe, Varys, for the good of the realm, forsake the life of Rhaenys in the end.

  30. In fairness Lord Greenhand, How did Tyrion figure out who John Connington was? He didn't know him or have anyone to verify it, not truly. Arrianne should be able to deduce whether he is true or not by observing his mannerisms and some well placed questions just like Tyrion did. As far as Aegon goes, how can you know it is him or not? The most Tyrion would concede is that he might be a Targaryean after all after his temper tantrum when Tryion beat him at a game of cyvasse. If Lemore is Ashara will this carry any weight with her? All we know is that the Lord of Starfall was last seen in the Riverlands squiring for the rebel Lord Beric and that no one from house Dayne went with Oberyn to Joffs wedding. Aside from the whole Darkstar thing which has brought Dorne to the brink of war with the Iron Throne. Also is the true purpose of Hotah and Obaras mission to take out Darkstar or is it to take out Balon Swann, one way or another? Its interesting that Doran referred to himself as the grass and Oberyn as the snake that hided inside. WIth Oberyn dead it seems like Doran has a job opening and who better to fill it than a person referred to as a Viper.

    I think Oberyn has two purposes with Arrianne. First Connington wrote asking for an alliance by sending Arrianne alone with a small group, it shows a certain amount of trust without commiting him to anything. Second, Arrianne and her group are all younger they have no real connection to the thing that have happened in the past, they aren't trying to fight old wars over again. So even though Arrianne and her group are the most knowledgable group, they are more impartial and lack an agenda. Thirdly, I think it gets Arrianne out of the way while giving her something important to do. While her and Doran have reconciled and he has opened his mind to her on some things, other things she is in the dark about as yet.If anything should happen to him in the short term Trystane is the only heir he has left in Dorne and he is too young, probably Manfryd Martell would be his regent and that would suit Doran better at this point, he knows his plans better than Arrianne. Its also interesting because we see the weak position that Dorne is in right now. Their military is deployed in the two passes, their men slowly deserting , with low morale. Meanwhile the coasts could be gravely threatened depending on the whims of Euron Greyjoy, the Redwynes, Eurane Waters and Saan. The general consensus is that the Redwyne Fleet is heading West to confront Eurons navy but I'm not sure if that is what will happen. Euron might make Redwyne an offer he can't refuse. Redwyne was hot for an alliance with the Ironborn when it was discussed in council in ASOS. If that happens will they move against Aegon, possibly by invading his Dornish allies while their forces are in the passes or marching into the Stormlands. That's how the young Dragon conquered them according to Stannis. I guess we will find out some of this if we ever get another book. By the way do you guys have any thoughts on the Asha fragment?

  31. I say Prince Doran is punishing Arianne for her debacle that got Arya Oakheart killed and Myrcella almost killed. He will gather info from Arianne but her mission is just a distraction from some other plan Doran is running.

  33. I'm mainly a show reader and Wonder if I should get into the books. But about the show I think that S8 would start with a flashback of Ned going to starfall and swapping Aegon with Jon and Bran realises this and he decides to find our where the last male targ is.

  34. Hey guys, I have a random theory that the house with the red door is situated on the Greenblood and that she was raised there with Aegon, Ashara, Walys Flowers and the Orphans of the Greenblood there. I found a couple of snippets which seem to tie everything together. Heres a clue that I found in 'A Feast for Crows" in regards to where I believe Vary's the spider- a member of the Order of the Greenhand- hid Daenerys, Ashara, Walys Flowers and Aegon.

    "Beyond a line of stony hills the grass grew greener and more lush, and there were lemon orchards watered by a spider's web of old canals. Garin was the first to spy the river glimmering in green…

    Low of roof and wide beam, the pole boats had hardly any draft to speak of; the Young Dragon had disparaged them as "hovels built on rafts," but that was hardly fair. All but the poorest orphan boats were wonderfully carved and painted."

    Daenery's also says:

    "I know this room, she thought. She remembered those great wooden beams and the carved animal faces that adorned them. And there outside the window, a lemon tree! The sight of it made her heart ache with longing. It is the house with the red door, the house in Braavos."

    Another interesting tidbit is that Daenerys loves the sea, as it makes her feel free, as well as the sailors and their songs and stories. Isn't it possible that being raised on the Greenblood would also make her love being near the water? If the house with the red door was one of the Orphan's boats or a house in the area (perhaps Lemonwood), it could explain why she feels so free whenever she's near water. Also, I'm trying to remember a specific passage, but I'm almost sure that there are parallels to Jon regarding people making jokes about their lineage being tied to the sea or fishermen?

    Also, I have one last snippet for you from Vary's speech to Kevan, which leads me to believe that agents of the Great Other or possibly Littlefinger's men have been chasing Aegon since his birth.

    "He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid."

    During their time at the Greenblood it's likely that this is where Aegon learnt how to fish, cook, sew, etc. The Orphans also have great knowledge regarding the healing arts, so it's likely that Aegon knows a thing or two about the healing arts being able to bind up a wound or two…

    I also believe that Danny is Ashara's daughter with Ned and this is something that has only gotten stronger over time. In a recent live video, you also made a purely accidental connection that Daenery's and Val would both be considered the most sought after women in all the seven kingdoms… it's possibly coincidental, but it's food for thought if they are both directly and indirectly comparable to Ashara looks wise. I would also agree with you that Starks had connections to dragons in ancient times, especially when you consider that their dire wolf sigil is covered in what looks suspiciously like dragon scales. I'm also fairly sure you guys recently said in a video that the Stark sigil had to be changed so it looked less like a dragon, is that right?

    All in all, I believe that Daenerys was separated from her mother Ashara, Walys (who could be mistaken for Ser Willem Darry?) and Aegon when they had to flee on the Shy Maid; a boat that was possibly given to them by the Orphans of the Greenblood. I feel that it's likely that Ashara felt that Daenerys- who we can assume was born with an entirely different name if this scenario is true -would be safer away from the group given the circumstances. With no other choice, Ashara sent word Varys, who would be able to set Daenery's up in a relatively safe location somewhere across the narrow sea. Unfortunately, Vary's and Illyrio (who are both likely ends that justify the means kind of men) knew that Visery's was desperate to get home so they planted the idea that he could sell Daenerys to Khal Drogo in exchange for the Dothraki army. I believe his constant obsessing over whether Daenerys looked like a princess in her first chapter was because Viserys beat her current identity into her, just like Ramsey beat Reek's identity into him. This is why Quaithe keeps telling Daenerys to remember who she is.

  35. (Just in case anyone missed it lol)
    Dear Dad,
    I tried my Dornish sexiness, but it didn't work. That's my only move, and I don't really know any others. Seducing him probably wouldn't help me learn the truth anyway. Can you send someone that has seen him before that might know if it is really him?
    Love,
    Arianne

  38. First heard you guys on Quinn's channel then after the Rawrist stream i knew i had to check you guys out!! so after binge watching your videos I knew I had to subscribe!!! Theb when i watched your latest live Q&A and heard you were from upstate NY that sealed the deal!!! I live in Middletown which is in Orange county and went to college in Morrisville up in Madsion county!!! So great to see such awesome talent from NYers that aren't in NYC haha.. keep up the great work!!!!

  39. Bravo! The pre-released Arianne chapters are the chapters that have me the most intrigued for TWoW. Finally being able to find out the truth about Faegon and Jon Con is what I look forward to the most. Can't wait for part 2.

  42. Awesome video as always, I'm proud to help support you two as much as I can. Joy is underrated by most folks in my experience, and even 20 minutes a week of it is a gift and a blessing to me and one I'll always treasure! Thank you!

  43. I know ASOIAF series is huge with so many story lines but…. Dorne is one of the best they are all amazing and beautiful they are also really great warriors and not just men the women too the show truly did them absolutely nooo justice😢

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