It is probably no coincidence that many of the biggest awards-friendly drama series got out of the way in preparation for a “Game of Thrones” Emmy steamroll. Heavily awarded series like “The Crown,” “The Handmaid’s Tale,” “Stranger Things” and “Westworld” are each debuting their third seasons outside the eligibility window to compete at this year’s Emmys. All four were nominated and lost Best Drama Series last year to “Game of Thrones.” None are in competition this year and “The Americans” has ended, so that leaves only “Game of Thrones” and “This Is Us” as possible returning shows to the Best Drama Series category. Yet, “Game of Thrones” received some unexpectedly divisive reviews for its last season, so what was once thought to be an easy final victory could be more up in the air.
Gold Derby odds have both “Game of Thrones” and “This Is Us” keeping up their streak of Best Drama Series nominations, on top of “Better Call Saul” returning after not being eligible at last year’s Emmys. Beyond those, odds are in the favor of two shows breaking through in their second seasons, BBC America’s “Killing Eve” and Netflix’s “Ozark,” and two new shows, Amazon’s “Homecoming” and HBO’s “Succession.” Also in the hunt but just outside the predicted seven nominees are FX’s “Pose,” Netflix’s “Bodyguard” and CBS All Access’ “The Good Fight.” So which show could be the one to pull off an upset on “Game of Thrones”? Let’s examine the other six predicted nominees.
“This Is Us” is clearly a well-liked show by actors, earning multiple Emmys for acting and two consecutive ensemble prizes at the SAG Awards. At this point, it is the sole representative for broadcast TV drama at the Emmys in the major categories, which could certainly help coalesce into a block of support from those in the TV academy working in network television. Support from the actors will be key to its success because the show has really struggled to pick up those key craft nominations. It has also never been nominated for directing or writing, which are typically key for a series win. It maintains a solid level of buzz, but its best chance at taking home the top prize was probably for its red-hot first season.
“Better Call Saul” is a perennial nominee at the Emmys, with the series and stars Bob Odenkirk and Jonathan Banks getting in for each of the AMC drama’s first three seasons. The problem is, it can’t win anything. “Better Call Saul” has been nominated for 23 Emmy Awards and has not won a single one. Like “This Is Us,” its best chance of winning might have already passed and it has not built buzz year to year as other shows here have. There is a large group in the TV academy that likes it, but perhaps not enough. If these two Drama Series bridesmaids cannot defeat “Game of Thrones,” perhaps another show will on its first try.
“Killing Eve” is arguably in the best position to pull off a shocking upset. While not a mega-hit like “Game of Thrones,” the pulpy BBC America series has a strong fanbase and massive critical acclaim. Sandra Oh swept the Best Drama Actress awards earlier this year for her performance as Eve Polastri, including a Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and Screen Actors Guild Award. Emmy voters already gave “Killing Eve” two nominations last year, including one for Oh, but Gold Derby experts are predicting a big increase for Season 2, including a Drama Series nomination and possible additional acting noms for Jodie Comer and Fiona Shaw. Centering on complex female characters and an addictive cat and mouse plot, Emmy voters may turn to “Killing Eve” as a cool, viable alternative.
“Ozark” is another show that scored a handful of Emmy nominations for its first season but should see a major uptick for Season 2. The moody Jason Bateman series built buzz for Season 2 and awards voters are paying attention. SAG especially took notice, awarding Bateman and nominating co-stars Laura Linney and Julia Garner on top of an Ensemble nomination. “Ozark” is shaping up to be the biggest contender for Netflix, at least on the drama side, and awards prognosticators know their penchant for awards campaigning. At the same time, “Ozark” hasn’t quite permeated pop culture like many of these other series and may still be too small to win.
It is always difficult to tell whether a new show can break into a series category, but “Homecoming” and “Succession” seem like the most solid bets of any. The star wattage of Julia Roberts brought attention to “Homecoming,” which scored nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. Unlike past Amazon series like “Transparent” and “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” though, “Homecoming” has not picked up any major wins. Then there’s “Succession,” which should be HBO’s other big Drama Series push that gained a cult audience over time. It has picked up some key hardware already, including a DGA Award and the BAFTA for Best International Series. Still, both shows may still be too small to win.
It would be foolish to bet against “Game of Thrones” in Best Drama Series at this point, but the unexpected backlash of this final season could cause voters to turn elsewhere. The question is which show will be the beneficiary?
Be sure to make your 2019 Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before nominations are announced on July 16. And join in the fun debate over the 2019 Emmy taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.
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