The verdict in the five assembly elections on December 11 has changed the mood in the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party camp in Maharashtra. The two opposition parties that have been trying to come out of despair following the crushing defeats in Lok Sabha, assembly and civic polls since 2014, are now feeling hopeful and optimistic with the Congress wins in three crucial states.
Post-December 11, the change in the opposition camp is visible.
“There was perception that we cannot defeat the BJP. That has changed. The victory has surely boosted the morale in our party,” says Maharashtra Congress chief Ashok Chavan.
Winning three BJP-ruled states in Hindi heartland, especially a key state like Madhya Pradesh is significant for the party. Two of these three states share their borders with Maharashtra. “There is discontent against the BJP among the people. It is also clear that the people did not just vote against the local government but also made their anger against Modi government known,” says NCP state unit chief Jayant Patil. “The situation in Maharashtra is similar and the issues are the same. The people will show their anger to the BJP here as well,” he adds.
The two main opposition parties think the situation in Maharashtra is similar to neighbouring states like MP and Chhattisgarh and also Gujarat where BJP barely managed to retain power. As such, they now think defeating the BJP and the Sena in Lok Sabha as well as assembly elections in 2019 won’t be difficult.
Besides, the change in the perception that the Congress cannot win elections, the party has also revived its ties with Sharad Pawar-led NCP. Both the parties share the same voter base and contesting separately cost them dearly in 2014 assembly elections. In fact the Congress-NCP performed better together than contesting solo. The two parties forged alliance and retained power in 2004 and 2009 assembly elections. In Lok Sabha too, they managed to win about half of the 48 seats except in 2014 where Modi wave swept the state with BJP led coalition wining 42 seats.
“There are 69-70 percent votes with various secular and liberal parties. Our effort is to avoid split in our votes. That would make our task to defeat fundamentalist forces easy,” says Chavan.
That is however, easier said than done. Even if the atmosphere becomes favourable, are the two main opposition parties in a position to take the advantage? The Congress is struggling with factionalism. The top leaders in Maharashtra Congress are waiting to pull each other down. Things are also not hunky dory within the NCP, which is witnessing power struggle among the top leaders. To make things complicated, the ghosts of several scams during the Congress-NCP rule in the state are still haunting the two parties. The BJP-Sena have strong presence in urban areas of the states that have half the assembly constituencies. Both the opposition parties are weak in almost all major cities. If the BJP and Sena forge alliance, winning seats in urban area will become difficult for the opposition parties. And even though there are plans to stitch together a grand alliance of opposition parties, working out an amicable seat-sharing pact would be very difficult. “It won’t be difficult for us to win. Our performance will be impressive in Lok Sabha as well as in the assembly polls,” says Chavan, who led the Congress to victory in 2009 assembly elections.
He also insists that factionalism won’t be a problem for the Congress. “There are aspirations in the party and it is perfectly healthy in a democratic party. What everybody in our party knows is that wining the elections is important. Everybody is being given responsibility and also being held accountable,” he says.
Patil says the coalition is a work in progress and things will be sorted out soon. “We are bringing together the opposition parties because we don’t want to split the votes when the people are ready to vote them out. Even if Sena-BJP come together it won’t be a problem. We had defeated their alliance in consecutive elections since 1999. It was only in 2014 the BJP got advantage of the situation but things are changing now,” says Patil.
Political analyst Pratap Asbe says the Congress-NCP cannot assume what happened in neighboring states will happen in Maharashtra as well. “The BJP-Shiv Sena focused more on urban areas as more number of Assembly seats come from these areas. Congress-NCP have succeeded in raising issues in rural areas,” he said. What probably will make the difference now is the BJP. Post-2014 BJP is an entirely different political force. It has massive election machinery that is run by micro planning and execution by top bosses and a charismatic leader like Modi. The party has made inroads in almost all parts of the state. Can the Congress-NCP manage to stop it?
“I agree the BJP is a strong opponent. I also know they will resort to everything in their might to retain power. But none of that will work when the people decide to vote them out. That’s what happened in Rajasthan and MP,”insists Chavan.
Can Congress-NCP stop the BJP juggernaut in Maharashtra? The answer is a few months away.
First Published: Dec 17, 2018 00:57 IST
