Washington: The battle to succeed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is hotting up since the killing of military commander Qasem Soleimani in a US drone attack earlier this month.
The tense battle over who will replace the 80-year-old ailing leader when he dies will determine Iran’s fate for decades to come, the Financial Times reports.
The choice will depend on where the balance of power lies at that time within the Islamic republic. In recent weeks that balance has further tilted in favour of the Revolutionary Guards and their hardline supporters.
“We are witnessing the most complicated domestic and foreign games all centred on the issue of succession,” says a reformist analyst. “The (further) empowerment of the guards is a deliberate policy to make them the dominant power so that they can play the main role in the power transition.”
According to many hardliners, the events highlight the need to have another pragmatic leader willing to stand up to the US. They play down speculation from reformists that Iranians will want the next supreme leader to be more of a ceremonial post, rather than another all-powerful figure.
The top leader’s metaphoric language during two recent events – the funeral for Guards commander Soleimani and the unprecedented missile strikes on bases housing US forces in Iraq on January 8 by the elite guards force – sent a clear message to Iranian politicians – and to the rest of the world. according to the report.
Ideological
The Islamic republic, analysts believe, will be even more steadfast in its ideological path at home, while in the rest of the Middle East the guards will promote a fresh radicalism.
Khamenei’s steadfast support for the guards – despite their role in the shooting down of a Ukraine airliner that killed 82 Iranians just hours after the attack on the US forces – comes against the backdrop of the tense succession battle.
It was Ayatollah Khamenei – as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces – who authorised the first-ever direct missile attack on US troops which was choreographed to demonstrate Iran’s determination to avenge the assassination of Soleimani without triggering a full-blown war.
While no American soldiers were killed, Iran sent messages to the US via the Swiss embassy that it would be the first and last strike if the US administration refrained from hitting back.
“Recent developments were like a wake-up call,” says a relative of the supreme leader. “(They) reminded us that the US can get too close to a war with Iran and we need another courageous leader who is able to maintain the country’s stability and power.
“The country cannot afford to risk a period of trial and error by an inexperienced leader,” he added.
Iran’s theocratic system is based on velayat-e faqih – rule of jurisprudence under Shia Islam. Reformist politicians, however, reject this religious interpretation. Instead, they say, a leader’s credentials need public legitimacy manifested in national elections.
These different interpretations have been at the centre of Iran’s political infighting since 1989, when Ayatollah Khamenei replaced Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, leader of the 1979 Islamic revolution. Khamenei, who does not have the charisma and high religious credentials of his predecessor, has instead relied on the revised constitution, which gave him an “absolute authority” over all state affairs. Since then, he has helped the guards expand their influence and has turned them into his main arm to exercise power. After recent events, those efforts are now likely to be accelerated, say those close to the regime.
“When, God forbid, Khamenei dies, the guards will completely take over the country so that the Experts Assembly can choose a leader,” says a regime insider. “On that day, the guards will be the top force to influence the choice, curb any possible crises and more importantly preserve the territorial integrity.”
While the guards have some influence over Ayatollah Khamenei, analysts say, they remain loyal to him and respect his final say in all affairs. The next leader, however, may not enjoy so much authority.
The strategy for now appears to be to play down the tough new US sanctions and mobilise public opinion in the region against Washington and Israel.
Provoke
Reformists, however, say the guards are overplaying their hand — both in domestic and Middle East politics, with incidents such as the alleged attack on Saudi Aramco facilities last year — which could provoke further unrest at home.
Iranian society is not as obedient as it was three decades ago and potentially less willing to accept a new leader if he is close to hardline forces. Iranians are more educated and have constantly pushed back boundaries, forcing the republic’s rulers to grudgingly allow some opening of the country politically, culturally and socially.
Speculation is rampant about who the guards will favour. Given recent events the odds have shortened on Ayatollah Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba, though he remains low-profile in his religious and political life.
The 51-year-old teaches at a senior level in Qom, the centre of learning for Shia Islam, giving him the status of a ranking cleric necessary for the supreme leader role. Thanks to a mindset similar to his father, the relative says, he has good insight into political and military issues and “is into a knowledge-based economy”.
Perception
“He has good relations with the guards,” a relative said. “He may not have the authority of his father, but the guards cannot dictate to him.”
The regime insider plays down perceptions that such a choice could make the Islamic republic look like the hereditary monarchy that it ousted more than 40 years ago.
Another potential candidate is Ebrahim Raisi, the hardline judiciary chief who lost the 2017 presidential election to President Hassan Rouhani.
The positioning among potential candidates is taking place at a time of change in Qom. The seminaries played a vital role in the victory of the revolution and are now the second most important institution after the guards. However, the most senior clerics in Qom are of advanced ages.
Grand Ayatollah Hossein Vahid Khorasani, the most senior cleric, is 99. Others include Lotfollah Safi Golpayegani, 100; Hossein Noori Hamedani, 94; Naser Makarem Shirazi, 92; and Mousa Shubairi Zanjani, 91.
