Gather round, friends, as we try to divine the premiere date of the final season of Game of Thrones. We’ve known for a while that season 8 will drop in the “first half” of 2019, but details have been scarce. Now, HBO may have given us a clue:

True Detective season 3 (which looks awesome, by the way) will premiere on Sunday, January 13, 2019. It consists of eight episodes. Assuming it takes no Sundays off, the finale will air on March 3. Game of Thrones also airs on Sundays. Might it drop the Sunday after True Detective is over, on March 10?

It would make sense for HBO to keep up a steady stream of original programming. But there’s another show we have to think about: the second season of Big Little Lies.

Big Little Lies season 2 is also set for a 2019 debut, and could easily slide into the schedule after True Detective. Filming on the show’s next seven episodes wrapped in August, and with little to no special effects needed (there are no dragons or ice zombies in Monterey…that we know of), Big Little Lies season 2 could easily be ready for an April debut, with the finale dropping March 21, assuming no gap weeks. Ladies in gentlemen, we have our lead-in.

That could lead right into Game of Thrones season 8, which under this logic would debut on April 28, 2019. That makes sense, since Game of Thrones has premiered in April five times before (and season 3 debuted on March 31, just missing April by a day.) The only outlier is season 7, which dropped in July.

But before we mark this down as certain, there are other factors to consider. First, HBO could choose to flip Thrones and Lies, but the one show could certainly use more time in post-production than the other. It’s also possible the network could take a weekend off between any of these shows, or take off Sunday, April 21 for Easter. We doubt it, though, at least as regards the holiday; HBO has aired new episodes of Game of Thrones on Easter Sunday before, more than once.

But we think April 28 seems pretty likely. And if the premiere does get pushed back, it’d probably be by no more than a week, to May 5. That way, HBO could air three episodes before Memorial Day weekend, take that Sunday off, and air the final three episodes afterwards. That’ll give fans a chance to catch their breath before the series comes to a close, and also symmetry is nice.

What does everyone else think? Is it time to send out your finale watch party invites?

Announcing WiC Club: the most exclusive club this side of the wall

Announcing WiC Club: the most exclusive club this side of the wall

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