Who’s likely to survive Game of Thrones?

The most common cause of death was wounds to the head and neck region, according to the study. The second most common cause of death was burning. Characters’ survival time, meanwhile, ranged from anywhere from just 11 seconds to 57 hours of screen time.

Characters had a 14 per cent chance of dying within the first hour of being introduced, and the likelihood of surviving was far worse for men and those unfortunate enough not to be born into a noble house.

The researchers also measured whether switching allegiances (a common plot device in the series) affected a character’s lifespan. Interestingly, those who betrayed others had a higher probability of staying alive. As on-screen villain Cersei Lannister says in season one: “When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.”

The paper’s co-author, Reidar Lystad, said Game of Thrones fans would be forgiven for assuming the research means Cersei and Sansa Stark will survive the TV show’s long-awaited finale. The fact they are both aristocratic women who have switched allegiances at various points in the show should give them a statistical advantage.

Loading

“There’s not that many characters that fit that this description,” he said. “Being female and being highborn are actually independent factors. But, together, they obviously have a greater effect. I guess this isn’t uncommon if you look at the real world. Females have much lower mortality rates.”

The study could signal some bad news for fan-favourite Daenerys Targaryen, given researchers determined “the mother of dragons” didn’t switch allegiances across seven whole seasons. (Not to mention Jon Snow, whose gender means he has a higher statistical probability of meeting a grisly end.)

But, there is some good news. Lystad stressed that he could only analyse Game of Thrones episodes that have already been aired. The final season could see producers throw out the rule book.

“Predictions are always a tricky thing,” he said.