Is BJP gaining the most?

The political slugfest is on with cries of ‘family is party’ and ‘party is family’ getting louder, some call it dynasty vs development and some are just sitting back with a tub of popcorn with front view seats to the Game of Thrones that is Uttar Pradesh politics.

The entry of Priyanka Gandhi bolsters the Congress in Uttar Pradesh and the coming together of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) forms a formidable Opposition against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). What was been seen as a fight between Bua-Bhatija and PM Modi has just turned into a three pronged political attack with millions of votes at stake.

In theory, the total vote share of the Congress, BSP and SP would sail over the BJP if the 2014 Lok Sabha poll results are taken into consideration. In 2014, the BSP’s vote share was 19.60 per cent, Samajwadi Party got a vote share of 22.20 per cent and the Congress secured 7.50 per cent vote share. This is against the thumping 42.30 per cent vote share of the BJP.

Things start getting interesting here. Despite the total vote share of 49.3 per cent, the Big 3 of Uttar Pradesh could secure only 7 seats out of 78 while the BJP sailed away with 71 of them. One needs to understand that a fragmented vote exponentially tilts the balance towards the party that secures even a marginally higher vote share.

Also Read: What Bhai-Behen duo could mean for Bua-Bhatija combine in Uttar Pradesh

In the BJP’s case, the vote share looks to be more or less unchanged for now with the party’s mega mass connect drives across the state, highlighted with the show of power at the Ardh Kumbh Mela 2019. The renaming spree of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath hasn’t really dented his vote bank either.

It would be naïve to base all calculations based on the 2014 Lok Sabha polls though.

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections come at a time when a lot of promises made by the Modi government have not materialised. The issue of unemployment and crime is still a major concern for the masses of UP and so is the case with the disgruntled farmers who feel that a lot more could have been done for them. Payment of sugarcane produce is a thorn that not even staunch BJP supporting farmers want to talk about.

Add to it the ghost of demonetisation and GST and the picture turns a darker hue for the ruling disposition. A united Opposition in Uttar Pradesh, with past rivals joining hands with the sole purpose of defeating the BJP, can turn the tide that has been in the BJP’s favour for a while now.

But…There is nothing black and white in Uttar Pradesh politics – there are many shades of grey too.

The SP and BSP might have chalked out their master plan of gaining power by splitting the seats in half and thus, are catering to their combined vote bank in all the strongholds of the parties across the state. This would mean that the combined percentage of voters would help them fight tooth and nail with the BJP.

However, the latest entrant in upping the ante, the Congress has made clear that it does not want to play second fiddle in the most populous state and the unleashing of their ‘Brahmastra’, as many political pundits would call it, makes the task a bit more perilous for Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati.

A splitting of their votes by an energised Congress is something that the BJP would be happy with. The cow vigilantism row might not have eroded saffron party’s traditional vote bank and let’s face it, their cadre is upbeat about the Ram Mandir too.

Lok Sabha elections have PM Modi on one hand and a faceless Opposition on the other. This is surely going to work in the favour of the BJP as there is no way a consensus can be arrived at in Uttar Pradesh over who would be a clear pick for the top post. 

Only the Lok Sabha 2019 poll results would be able to give a clear picture of how much territory the SP, BSP and the Congress want to give each other and maybe by that time, the BJP has already emerged as the biggest gainer of the Bhai-Behen, Bua-Bhatija tussle for power.

Till then, we can just sit back and soak-in the colourful sloganeering, the trading of barbs and the political humdrum elections bring to the Hindi heartland. 

 

The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way represent those of Times Network.